WASHINGTON — Money for political ads in this year’s midterm elections has blown past $10 billion, a record for a non-presidential year, and the total is on track to climb to about $11.6 billion by the Nov. 3 vote, according to the tracking firm AdImpact.
The previous midterm high was $8.9 billion in 2022. The new projection would even top the roughly $11.2 billion spent on ads during the 2024 presidential cycle. AdImpact had forecast $10.8 billion for this cycle before raising its estimate, and the firm’s forecast for 2024 landed within 5% of the final figure. The totals cover ads only, not staff, travel or get-out-the-vote work.
Republicans hold a sizable advantage in Senate airtime. Across nine of the most competitive Senate contests last month, GOP candidates and allied groups spent about $233 million on broadcast TV ads to roughly $121 million for Democrats. In races rated toss-ups, including time booked but not yet aired, the split was about $947 million to $625 million. The gap in House toss-ups is much smaller, around $14 million across 21 races.
That edge leans heavily on a few very wealthy donors writing checks to super PACs, which can raise unlimited sums as long as they do not coordinate with candidates. Elon Musk is the largest individual donor to federal races this cycle, with $369 million to Republicans since early 2025, including $158 million last month to the Senate Leadership Fund. On the Democratic side, the biggest super PAC giving is tied to George Soros, whose network has put $102 million into Democracy PAC.
Democratic Senate candidates, meanwhile, have often raised more money directly. In Texas, where ad spending and reservations have passed $500 million, Democrat James Talarico outraised Republican Ken Paxton by about $50 million from July through September, though outside money has given Paxton more airtime. Ohio’s special Senate election between Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown has drawn more than $450 million in ads, and Maine’s race between Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson is the costliest per resident at about $200 million.
Individuals can give a candidate no more than $3,500 per election this cycle and $5,000 a year to a traditional PAC. Super PACs have no such cap, a system that grew out of the 2010 Citizens United decision and a related appeals court ruling.
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